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For the week of September 16, 2019


CHART OF THE WEEK: Rising Inflation Expectations and Oil Prices

Most of the summer, Inflation swaps have been settling lower and lower, corroborating the recession prediction in the rates market. In the last few weeks, however, swaps (and rates) have reversed course and traded more in line with the commodity's signal (see Chart of the Week). After this weekend's attacks on Saudi oil supply and the consequent price shock, it's reasonable to think inflation expectations may begin to complicate the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision making. The market is currently pricing in three rate cuts in the next 12 months.


Since September 3rd, the yield on the 10-year U.S. treasury has increased by about 45 basis points (bps) or nearly 31% from approximately 1.45% to 1.90%. This may not be shocking when we recognize that core inflation readings (as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding energy and food prices) were higher than expected for the third straight month. The Fed still has room to cut rates if it chooses – which it seems likely to do by at least 25bps during this week’s meeting – however they may reduce the urgency to make policy even more accommodative than it already is. The probability of fewer rate cuts than the market anticipates rose after last week’s CPI data.

The investment grade corporate bond market saw strong demand, with an estimated inflow of $6.8 billion into high grade funds last week. Given the strong demand, last week's supply (36 deals totaling $32.5 billion) was digested with relative ease. It’s worth noting that we have seen 82 deals totaling almost $103 billion in the last 2 weeks. With rates higher and equity volatility lower, the market backdrop has also helped. As a result the Bloomberg Barclays Index is 1bp tighter on the week and 4bps tighter on the month.

Within the ICE BofAML U.S. High Yield Index , BB spreads were 30bps tighter on the week and CCC spreads were 68bps wider, as the compression theme in high yield continues. Previously out of favor cyclical sectors like autos, energy, and chemicals continue to be well bid.



Industrial Production


Housing Starts, FOMC Meeting Announcement, FOMC Forecasts, Fed Chair Press Conference


Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, Existing Home Sales



Index Returns

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1 Week YTD 1-YR 3-YR 5-YR
U.S. Aggregate -1.66 7.13 8.62 2.74 3.20
IG Corporates -2.14 10.68 10.61 4.13 4.23
HY Corporates 0.15 11.59 6.69 6.52 5.17
Bank Loans 0.32 6.37 3.51 4.87 4.04
IG Corporates 1-3 Year -0.38 4.00 4.98 2.47 2.18
Global Aggregate -1.36 5.79 6.40 1.73 1.76



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Latest 1-YR Low 1-YR High 1-WK Change YTD Change 1-YR Change
2 Year 1.80 1.45 2.97 26 -69 -96
5 Year 1.75 1.33 3.09 32 -76 -112
10 Year 1.90 1.46 3.24 34 -79 -107
30 Year 2.37 1.93 3.45 35 -64 -74



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Latest 1-YR Low 1-YR High 1-WK Change YTD Change 1-YR Change
IG Corporates 116 105 157 -3 -37 7
HY Corporates 361 303 537 -24 -165 42
EM Aggregate 309 272 350 -16 -34 5
CMBS 68 58 87 -1 -18 5
MBS 45 27 57 0 10 17
ABS 34 30 53 1 -19 -3



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Latest 1-WK Change YTD Change 1-YR Change
S&P GSCI 403.83 -0.64 29.50 -60.55
Crude Oil - WTI ($) 54.85 -1.67 9.44 -14.14
Trade Weighted Dollar* 130.55 -0.12 2.44 4.01
5-Yr Breakeven Inflation Rate (%) 1.49 0.12 0.00 -0.50

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