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Market View

Lord Abbett investment professionals address investor concerns regarding Great Britain’s vote to leave the European Union and its impact on key asset classes.

Breaking up is hard to do, especially when it involves relationships among key players in the global economy. After a referendum on June 23, Great Britain became the first country in the European Union’s (EU) 60-year history to leave the EU bloc of nations—a momentous decision with enormous consequences for financial markets, the economy, politics, and business. The vote—which is not legally binding until Great Britain invokes Article 50 (which represents formal notification of leaving the union) of the Lisbon treaty—has sparked concerns about the impact of “Brexit” on global economic growth, and spawned volatility across financial markets worldwide.

In this special edition of Market View, we asked experts from across the spectrum of our investment disciplines to respond to some of investors’ key concerns. Contributing their viewpoints are Zane Brown, Partner and Fixed-Income Strategist; Brian Foerster, U.S. Equity Strategist; Leah Traub, Partner and Fixed-Income Portfolio Manager; and Harold Sharon, Partner and International Equity Strategist. 

U.S. Fixed Income
After the Brexit bombshell, where now should fixed-income investors be focused? In the aftermath of the vote on June 23, we have seen flight-to-quality buying of government securities and other so-called “ultra-safe” assets. At the same time, the interim volatility offers a buying opportunity for riskier assets, especially U.S. high-yield bonds. As the Brexit shock fades (eventually), and investors realize in the coming weeks that forecasters may have been overstating the risk of a global recession—and that there may be even less risk when it comes to U.S. companies—they may realize that high yield will provide needed income when it’s absent everywhere else in the world.

A few points about U.S. high-yield issuers should be noted: The businesses of these companies are generally U.S.-focused. That’s an important point because, amid the near-term flight to safe-haven assets, we expect the U.S. dollar to strengthen. A stronger dollar could hamper companies with significant international operations, as their earnings overseas are compromised by unfavorable currency movements and as their exports are reduced due to slower global growth. But U.S. high-yield companies don’t derive a significant share of earnings from other countries—and they’re not big exporters—so once investors realize the benefits of a U.S.-centered approach, it’s likely that high-yield securities will attract investment flows. In this entire process of investor flight to safety, and with central banks set to supply massive liquidity, global yields should continue to drop. That will leave investors throughout the world starved for yield, and U.S. high-yield securities will prove uniquely attractive in that environment.

What other segments of the fixed-income market may prove attractive in the post-Brexit period? We think short-duration income securities that are U.S.-centric also will be well positioned in the coming months. Faced with negative yields in the eurozone and Japan, investors may find better offerings in the United States, as well as the potential for U.S. dollar appreciation. Moreover, short-term corporate securities historically have offered lower volatility than intermediate- and longer-maturity securities.  For those concerned about softening U.S. economic growth amid the global uncertainty, an allocation to investment-grade corporate bonds may make sense. Why? Interest rate-sensitive fixed-income categories with a high correlation to Treasuries typically outperform in weaker economic environments. 

We also think that municipal bonds—another U.S.-centered asset class—also will be well positioned in the coming months. As we noted in an earlier article, municipal bonds have provided an oasis of calm during recent periods of market volatility. Unlike other markets that are being whipsawed by fast-moving global developments, municipal bonds are influenced largely by fundamental factors that are U.S.-focused. These are the health of the U.S. economy, and supply/demand factors—each of which continues to provide support for the asset class.

Municipal bonds recently offered higher yields than other categories. The representative Barclays Municipal Bond Index recently featured a substantially higher tax-equivalent yield than a representative index of 10-year U.S. Treasury securities.

 

Chart 1. In a World of Historically Low Yields, U.S. Municipal Bonds Look Attractive
Yield/tax-equivalent yield, as of June 24, 2016

Source: Barclays and Bloomberg. Data as of June 24, 2016. Yields by country are for 10-year government bonds, as represented by the Bloomberg World Bond Government Bond listings. Yield depicted for municipal bonds (as represented by the Barclays Municipal Bond 10-Year Index) is tax-equivalent yield. Tax-equivalent yield calculation for the Barclays Municipal Bond 10-Year Index assumes the top marginal tax bracket of 43.4% on investment income, which includes the 39.6% income tax rate and the 3.8% in Medicare tax. This tax rate does not factor in the effect of AMT (alternative minimum tax) or taxes in your individual state. Tax-equivalent yield will vary based on an investor’s tax bracket. At the 28% tax bracket, the tax-equivalent yield would be 2.18% for the Barclays Municipal Bond 10-Year Index.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only and does not reflect any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment. Lower-rated bonds may carry greater risks than higher-rated bonds. Income from municipal bonds may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federal, state, and local taxes may apply.

U.S. Equities
Beyond Great Britain’s referendum to leave the European Union, investors face a number of other concerns around global growth, such as China grappling with a slowing economy, the eurozone hindered by sluggish growth, and the prospect of more fiscal drama with Greece. Japan is trying to jump-start its moribund economy and counter deflation. The U.S. economy, meanwhile, appears to be in a stronger position relative to its major counterparts. While growth for the world’s largest economy has not been spectacular, it has been steady, with gross domestic product (GDP) expanding at an average annual rate of about 2% in recent years.

We think that given these conditions, investor attempts at market timing would be unwise. Instead, we believe investors should adopt a more selective approach to equities. Based on investor preferences, we think the following strategies may be better suited to the current environment.

Secular growth: Brexit may lead to an overreaction in markets, while the global economy likely will remain in a slow-growth mode.  In this type of environment, we think secular growth industries like biotech and Internet retail likely will distinguish themselves from the broad market and reward long-term investors.

U.S.-focused: As we mentioned above, the United States appears to be in a stronger position than other global economies. The U.S. consumer has been the engine powering U.S. economic growth, as consumption spending accounts for nearly two-thirds of U.S. GDP. Since the U.S. economy is uniquely dependent on internal consumption, it is less export-dependent than other nations, with total U.S. exports accounting for only 13% of U.S. GDP. Comparatively, China’s export sector makes up 23% of its economic output, while Germany’s comprises around 46%, according to World Bank data. 

So, how might equity investors benefit from this trend? They may wish to consider the companies that might be most closely linked to the strength of the U.S. consumer. As Chart 2 shows, small- and mid-cap companies tend to be more domestically focused. Based on data from FactSet, small-cap companies derived nearly 75% of their revenue from the United States, based on fiscal year 2015 revenue estimates, while mid-cap companies garnered around 68%.

 

Chart 2. Historically, Small- and Mid-Cap Companies Have Had Higher Domestic Sales
Revenue exposure by market capitalization, based on fiscal year 2015 revenue estimates

Source: FactSet. Domestic sales as a percentage of total geographic sales. Segments are collected as reported by each company in its respective index. If a company reports by region instead of country, the total domestic sales percentage is based on the home country's or country of domicile's region. For illustrative purposes only. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect the deduction of fees or expenses, and are not available for direct investment. Forecasts and projections are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. Projections should not be considered a guarantee.

 

To be sure, U.S.-based large- and mega-cap companies, typically with substantial global footprints, still derive more than half their revenues from the United States, according to FactSet. But for investors who may prefer a more direct exposure to the U.S. economy—and the stalwart U.S. consumer—increasing allocations to U.S. small- and mid-cap companies might make sense.

Dividend strategies: Should market volatility continue to be a concern, investors also may wish to take a close look at another corner of U.S. equities: dividend stocks. Lord Abbett research has shown that those stocks in the S&P 500® Index that pay dividends historically have displayed less volatility (as measured by standard deviation) than those that do not pay dividends—and many have offered higher return.

Currencies
As the Brexit drama unfolded last week, the British pound had a leading role to play, but the action didn’t stop there. To no one’s surprise, the “leave” vote on Thursday, June 23, hammered the pound on Friday, June 24, pushing it to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since 1985, down 11%, before regaining some ground later that day. Great Britain’s record current-account deficit puts the pound in a weak position, as the uncertainty surrounding Brexit is likely to dampen capital inflows into the nation.  (All currency data are from The Wall Street Journal.)

Benefiting from the rout in the pound were the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen, two of several so-called safe-haven currencies that attract investors when uncertainty arises. Perhaps not surprisingly, the euro, which had obtained somewhat of a safe-haven status among currencies in recent years, lost that status, and fell 4.7% against the U.S. dollar on June 24, before staging a small late-afternoon rally.

Outside of Great Britain, the Polish zloty was one of the worst performers on June 24, down 4.4% against the U.S. dollar and 1.6% against the euro, reflecting its strong ties to European banks and its status as a large trading partner with Great Britain. The Hungarian forint, reflecting similar factors as well as overall risk aversion, lost 3.5% versus the dollar, also on that day.

Other hard-hit currencies on June 24 included the Mexican peso and the South African rand, down about 3.6% and 4.4%, respectively, to the dollar. Investors often sell first the peso and the rand among emerging-market currencies in a “risk-off” environment, as both are very liquid and, therefore, easy to trade. Their current-account deficits require them to be more dependent upon portfolio inflows, which become harder to attract in an uncertain global environment. In addition, their central banks have been historically very hands off, not standing in the way of significant currency depreciation.  

On Monday, June 27, the People’s Bank of China, the nation’s central bank, lowered the daily fixing rate or “benchmark” for the Chinese yuan at 6.6375 to the U.S. dollar, after the currency fell to its lowest level in nearly five and a half years due to concerns about Brexit. The currency is now loosely managed to a trade-weighted basket of China’s main trading partners, so when the dollar strengthens against a broad set of currencies, the yuan will correspondingly weaken versus the dollar.  

Investors seem to be in a “wait and see” mode as we begin the first post-Brexit week. Most likely the rout still has a way to go yet. Clearly, political decisions, particularly as they affect global trade prospects, are going to be an important factor in the currency markets. And it is most likely that central bank interventions will be a part of the policy response, providing support to the weakest of currencies in this period of risk avoidance. However, easier monetary policy globally will also likely be part of the response which benefits higher yielding currencies that are not directly tied to the United Kingdom and the EU more broadly.  

International Equities
To say that economists and other so-called experts underestimated the frustration of the developed-market middle and working classes may be one of the greatest understatements of the 21st century.

In Great Britain’s case, it’s as if Brexit voters were channeling Howard Beale, the frenzied fictional newscaster in the 1976 movie Network by opening up their windows and yelling in unison, “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going take it anymore.”

Suffice it to say, Lord Abbett international portfolio managers are spending a lot of time thinking about what “it” is and how to exploit this new environment before other market participants do. That means, among other actions, sorting through the secondary and unintended exposures that huge foreign exchange (FX) moves could have. While exporters could benefit from a much weaker pound, companies more reliant on domestic sales might have to issue profit warnings if the British economy weakens further.

For example, one airline company has already issued a profit warning based on FX moves, a possible signal of an earnings season full of such advisories.

So far, defensive, high-yielding stocks have held up best, and small-cap stocks suffered the most. Greater volatility, which is likely to continue, may produce some attractive valuations as policymakers grapple with next steps, businesses soldier on, and consumers get on with their lives. And while the European Union sorts out foundational issues, some active managers may glean opportunities to add to their positions in Asian and emerging market equities.

Brexit is a very complex, game-changing event. And while none of Lord Abbett’s International/Global Investment team think this will lead to an out-of-control spiral toward another recession in the United States, or globally, it certainly will usher in further uncertainty amid global investment decisions, and should shave some growth from analysts’ forecasts.  

In other words, such a heightened risk environment—some analysts foresee a greater shift from globalization toward more inward-looking policymaking—could take some time for investors to digest. But like other historical sell-offs, there eventually should be opportunities to consider.

 

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