Equity Perspectives
Amid the Equity Volatility, We Think This Chart Is Worth Watching
What might a key market sentiment signal be telling us now?
We believe that combining fundamental and technical factors is central to the goals of generating returns and managing risk in our growth equity portfolios. That’s why we have incorporated technical analysis as a major component of our growth investing strategy. (See this commentary for more insights on this topic.)
Amid the current volatility, we have been examining chart action in major equity indexes for key signals. We thought the chart below, tracking activity the Russell 3000® Index, might be especially useful for investors as they focus on how long the current bout of selling pressure may last.
Reading Key Technical Indicators for the Broad U.S. Stock Market
Price (top) and price relative to 150-day moving average (bottom) for the Russell 3000 Index, March 23, 2005-March 23, 2020
Source: FactSet. Data as of March 23, 2020. A moving average is a technique often used in technical analysis (see below) that smooths price histories by averaging daily prices over some period of time.
The information shown is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment. Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. There is no guarantee that markets will perform in a similar manner under similar conditions in the future.
What is it telling us? Here are a few observations.
- During a correction, history has shown us that the first positive signals often occur when sentiment and breadth indicators become oversold.
- As an example, as of this writing the price of the Russell 3000 index is furthest below its 150-day moving average since the global financial crisis.
- These oversold indicators tend to be “early” so we will have to shift our attention to other signals for signs of stabilization and market strength.
- An example of market strength that we will look for will be a strong follow-through day for the index.
- Once we have bullish confirmation from several other signals that we monitor, we might begin to increase exposure to innovative companies with positive operating and price momentum.
Combining fundamental and technical factors is central to our efforts to generate returns—and manage risk as portfolio managers. We believe this is never more essential than in times of elevated market volatility. We will be spotlighting more charts of interest in the weeks to come to help equity investors make sense of current technical trends—and the opportunities that may arise.
A Note about Risk: The value of investments in equity securities will fluctuate in response to general economic conditions and to changes in the prospects of particular companies and/or sectors in the economy.
Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. All investments involve risks, including the loss of principal invested.
Glossary of Terms
A moving average is a technique often used in technical analysis (see below) that smooths price histories by averaging daily prices over some period of time.
Market breadth is used in technical analysis (see below) to gauge the general direction of the stock market based on all traded stocks. Market breadth divides the number of stocks that have experienced gains by the number of stocks that have experienced losses.
Market sentiment refers to the overall attitude of investors toward a particular security or financial market. In technical analysis (see below), sentiment is tracked through the activity and price movement of the securities traded in that market. Broadly, rising prices indicate bullish market sentiment, while falling prices indicate bearish sentiment.
Technical analysis is a trading discipline employed to evaluate investments and identify trading opportunities by analyzing statistical trends gathered from trading activity, such as price movement and volume.
The Russell 3000® Index measures the performance of the largest 3000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market.
Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect the deduction of fees or expenses, and are not available for direct investment.
This commentary may contain assumptions that are “forward-looking statements,” which are based on certain assumptions of future events. Actual events are difficult to predict and may differ from those assumed. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will materialize or that actual returns or results will not be materially different from those described here.
The information provided herein is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information about our products and services and to otherwise provide general investment education. No information contained herein should be regarded as a suggestion to engage in or refrain from any investment-related course of action as Lord, Abbett & Co LLC (and its affiliates, “Lord Abbett”) is not undertaking to provide impartial investment advice, act as an impartial adviser, or give advice in a fiduciary capacity with respect to the materials presented herein. If you are an individual retirement investor, contact your financial advisor or other non-Lord Abbett fiduciary about whether any given investment idea, strategy, product, or service described herein may be appropriate for your circumstances.
The opinions in this commentary are as of the date of publication, are subject to change based on subsequent developments, and may not reflect the views of the firm as a whole. The material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research, or investment advice, is not a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy, and is not intended to predict or depict the performance of any investment. Readers should not assume that investments in companies, securities, sectors, and/or markets described were or will be profitable. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. This document is prepared based on the information Lord Abbett deems reliable; however, Lord Abbett does not warrant the accuracy and completeness of the information. Investors should consult with a financial advisor prior to making an investment decision.