Entries filed under 'Interest Rates'

    The Fed: Just a Little Patience

    December 17, 2014 4:20 PM by Zane Brown

    Though the central bank altered the language about the timing of future policy moves in its December 17 policy statement, its projections still suggest a mid-2015 hike in interest rates. 

    The Federal Reserve executed a neat bit of linguistic jiu-jitsu in the statement released at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on December 17, 2014. The Fed’s policy-setting arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), replaced the hedged language of “a considerable time” regarding how long the Fed would maintain its zero-interest rate policy, saying instead that it could be “patient” before making any changes. The FOMC essentially defined “patience” as a “considerable time,” but the change still suggests to many investors that the first interest-rate hike will begin in about six months. 

    Read More »

    The Fed: No Detours from the Rate-Hike Road

    October 29, 2014 3:05 PM by Zane Brown

    The policy statement on October 29 indicates that the central bank remains on track for a mid-2015 increase in the fed funds rate. 

    There were no “October surprises” from the Federal Reserve this time around. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting on October 29, the Fed’s policy-setting arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), kept the fed funds target rate at 0–0.25%, and reiterated the planned termination of quantitative easing (QE). In its post-meeting statement, the FOMC also kept the “considerable time” language with regard to how long the fed funds rate will stay in its current range, consistent with expectations of an initial rate hike at some point near mid-2015.  

    Read More »

    Fixed Income: Opportunity amid Volatility

    October 16, 2014 2:59 PM by Zane Brown

    Amid the current market turmoil, where should bond investors focus?

    Risk is off and volatility is back. Financial markets have been whipsawed this past week by fears of a slowing in global economic growth. While equities have suffered sizable losses, the Treasury market has benefited as investors seek the perceived safety of U.S. government debt. 

    Read More »

    The Fed: Uncertainty Rules

    September 18, 2014 2:10 PM by Timothy Paulson

    Welcome to the post–QE world. 

    Not since September 2013 have investors been as focused on, and uncertain about, a statement from Federal Reserve policymakers as they were for the one released on September 17, 2014. As it turns out, the policy-setting arm of the Fed, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), did not explicitly set a timetable as to when it would begin to raise interest rates (it retained the now-famous “considerable time” reference). Nonetheless, the market is keenly aware that a rate hike is still in the cards.

    Read More »

    Fed Policy: Time for a Change?

    September 15, 2014 2:00 PM by Zane Brown

    Improving economic data, along with recent statements from Federal Reserve officials, suggest that policymakers may alter their stance on the timing of a rate hike.

    The Federal Reserve may have to change its longstanding monetary policy boilerplate based on recent economic releases, increases in both commercial and consumer lending, and statements from several members of the Fed’s policy-setting arm, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC). These factors combine to suggest that the Fed, at its meeting on September 16–17, may alter its language from recent policy statements stating that it “likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time” after the end of the Fed’s quantitative easing (QE) program.

    Read More »